Utrera vs Ceuta II: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Group 10 - 25Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio San Juan Bosco, Utrera
The Footlab model makes Utrera the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Ceuta II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Utrera vs Ceuta II?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Utrera (1,775) and Ceuta II (1,772).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Utrera have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Ceuta II have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Bollullos(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| May 3, 2026 | Sevilla III(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Linense(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Recreativo Huelva(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Pozoblanco(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Dos Hermanas(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| May 17, 2026 | Dos Hermanas(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| May 10, 2026 | San Roque Lepe(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| May 3, 2026 | Castilleja(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Coria CF(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Utrera win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Ceuta II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Ceuta II 1-1 Utrera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Utrera 3-2 Ceuta II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Utrera 4-3 Ceuta II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Ceuta II 0-0 Utrera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Ceuta II 3-0 Utrera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Utrera 0-2 Ceuta II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
How many goals should we expect?
Utrera score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ceuta II score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utrera | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Ceuta II | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Utrera sit 10th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 (44 points from 34 matches) and Ceuta II sit 5th (52 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ceuta II | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 38 | 38 | 52 |
| 10 | Utrera | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 40 | 47 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Utrera vs Ceuta II?
- The Footlab model makes Utrera the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Ceuta II.
- Where and when is Utrera vs Ceuta II played?
- Utrera vs Ceuta II is played on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio San Juan Bosco, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 10.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.