Van vs Ararat: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Charentsavan City Stadium, Charentsavan
The Footlab model makes Van the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Ararat. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Van vs Ararat?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Van (1,567) and Ararat (1,473).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Van have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Ararat have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Syunik(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Sardarapat(home) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pyunik Yerevan(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | BKMA(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sardarapat(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Alashkert(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Andranik(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Van win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Ararat win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Ararat 1-2 Van | Premier League |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Van 1-2 Ararat | Premier League |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Van 1-0 Ararat | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Ararat 0-1 Van | Premier League |
| May 8, 2025 | Ararat 2-1 Van | Premier League |
| Nov 5, 2024 | Van 4-0 Ararat | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Van score 0.7 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Ararat score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van | 0.7 | 1.8 | 2 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Ararat | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Van sit 12th in Premier League (1 points from 4 matches) and Ararat sit 9th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ararat | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 12 | Van | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Van vs Ararat?
- The Footlab model makes Van the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Ararat.
- Where and when is Van vs Ararat played?
- Van vs Ararat is played on October 23, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Charentsavan City Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.