Vanspor FK vs Fatih Karagümrük: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 36Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu, Van
The Footlab model makes Fatih Karagümrük the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Vanspor FK. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vanspor FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (1,879 vs 1,768).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vanspor FK have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Fatih Karagümrük have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | İstanbulspor(home) | 3-2 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manisa F.K.(away) | 1-4 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kayserispor(home) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 1, 2026 | Hatayspor(away) | 1-3 | 1. Lig |
| Apr 25, 2026 | İstanbulspor(home) | 1-3 | 1. Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bursaspor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Iğdır FK(away) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 16, 2026 | Alanyaspor(home) | 2-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Kocaelispor(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Vanspor FK win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Fatih Karagümrük win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2013 | Vanspor FK 2-2 Fatih Karagümrük | 3. Lig - Group 1 |
| Nov 11, 2012 | Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Vanspor FK | 3. Lig - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Vanspor FK vs Fatih Karagümrük on Mar 23, 2013
How many goals should we expect?
Vanspor FK score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Fatih Karagümrük score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanspor FK | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Fatih Karagümrük | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vanspor FK sit 14th in 1. Lig (3 points from 3 matches) and Fatih Karagümrük sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fatih Karagümrük | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 14 | Vanspor FK | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vanspor FK vs Fatih Karagümrük?
- The Footlab model makes Fatih Karagümrük the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Vanspor FK.
- Where and when is Vanspor FK vs Fatih Karagümrük played?
- Vanspor FK vs Fatih Karagümrük is played on April 25, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Atatürk Şehir Stadyumu, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.