Velež vs FK Sarajevo: prediction and stats
Premijer LigaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Rođeni, Mostar
The Footlab model makes FK Sarajevo the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Velež. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Velež vs FK Sarajevo?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Velež (1,645) and FK Sarajevo (1,725).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Velež have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; FK Sarajevo have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sloga Doboj(home) | 2-0 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | BSK Banja Luka(away) | 0-2 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(away) | 1-3 | Premijer Liga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Dunajska Streda(home) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Dunajska Streda(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | BSK Banja Luka(home) | 1-0 | Premijer Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Radnik Bijeljina(home) | 0-0 | Premijer Liga |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Inter Turku(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Inter Turku(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| May 25, 2026 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo(home) | 1-0 | Premijer Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Velež win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 FK Sarajevo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Velež 2-3 FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| Mar 22, 2026 | FK Sarajevo 1-0 Velež | Premijer Liga |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Velež 4-1 FK Sarajevo | Cup |
| Feb 25, 2026 | FK Sarajevo 0-1 Velež | Cup |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Velež 0-0 FK Sarajevo | Premijer Liga |
| Sep 20, 2025 | FK Sarajevo 2-0 Velež | Premijer Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Velež score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; FK Sarajevo score 1.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Velež | 0.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| FK Sarajevo | 1.5 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Velež sit 7th in Premijer Liga (3 points from 3 matches) and FK Sarajevo sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FK Sarajevo | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Velež | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Velež vs FK Sarajevo?
- The Footlab model makes FK Sarajevo the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Velež.
- Where and when is Velež vs FK Sarajevo played?
- Velež vs FK Sarajevo is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Rođeni, in the Premijer Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.