Vibonese vs Gela: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone IGroup I - 8Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Luigi Razza, Vibo Valentia
The Footlab model makes Vibonese the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Gela. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vibonese vs Gela?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Vibonese (1,669) and Gela (1,673).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vibonese have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Gela have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Acireale(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| May 3, 2026 | Acireale(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Gela(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Igea Virtus(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | AC Palermo(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Gelbison(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Vibonese(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | CastrumFavara(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Reggina(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Nissa(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Vibonese win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Gela win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Gela 1-1 Vibonese | Serie D - Girone I |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Vibonese 1-2 Gela | Serie D - Girone I |
How many goals should we expect?
Vibonese score 0.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Gela score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vibonese | 0.7 | 1.4 | 6 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Gela | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vibonese sit 13th in Serie D - Girone I (35 points from 34 matches) and Gela sit 9th (43 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Gela | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 41 | 44 | 43 |
| 13 | Vibonese | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 32 | 47 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vibonese vs Gela?
- The Footlab model makes Vibonese the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Gela.
- Where and when is Vibonese vs Gela played?
- Vibonese vs Gela is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Luigi Razza, in the Serie D - Girone I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.