Vilassar Mar vs Badalona: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 3Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon, Vilassar de Mar
The Footlab model makes Badalona the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Vilassar Mar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vilassar Mar vs Badalona?
Badalona starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (1,802 vs 1,688).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vilassar Mar have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Badalona have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Grama(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 3, 2026 | Tona(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Lleida Esportiu(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Vilanova(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | L'Escala(away) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Cornellà(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 31, 2026 | Cornellà(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 24, 2026 | L'Hospitalet(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 17, 2026 | L'Hospitalet(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 10, 2026 | Vic(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Vilassar Mar win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Badalona win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Badalona 0-0 Vilassar Mar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Vilassar Mar 1-2 Badalona | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
Last archived meeting: Badalona vs Vilassar Mar on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vilassar Mar score 0.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Badalona score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vilassar Mar | 0.9 | 1.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
| Badalona | 1.2 | 1.2 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Vilassar Mar | 34 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 36 | 38 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vilassar Mar vs Badalona?
- The Footlab model makes Badalona the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Vilassar Mar.
- Where and when is Vilassar Mar vs Badalona played?
- Vilassar Mar vs Badalona is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Xevi Ramon, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.