Tona vs Pobla Mafumet: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 3Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Tona, Tona
The Footlab model makes Tona the favourite at 47%, against 30% for a draw and 23% for Pobla Mafumet. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tona vs Pobla Mafumet?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Tona (1,758) and Pobla Mafumet (1,699).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tona have 4 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats; Pobla Mafumet have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | L'Escala(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 3, 2026 | Vilassar Mar(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Mollerussa(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | San Cristóbal(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Cornellà(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2024 | L'Hospitalet(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 5, 2024 | Castelldefels(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 1, 2024 | Badalona II(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 27, 2024 | San Cristóbal(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Grama(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Tona win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Pobla Mafumet win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2024 | Tona 3-2 Pobla Mafumet | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Oct 15, 2023 | Pobla Mafumet 1-1 Tona | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Mar 19, 2023 | Pobla Mafumet 5-2 Tona | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Tona 0-0 Pobla Mafumet | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
Last archived meeting: Tona vs Pobla Mafumet on Apr 10, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Tona score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Pobla Mafumet score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tona | 1.2 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Pobla Mafumet | 0.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tona | 34 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 35 | 31 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tona vs Pobla Mafumet?
- The Footlab model makes Tona the favourite at 47%, against 30% for a draw and 23% for Pobla Mafumet.
- Where and when is Tona vs Pobla Mafumet played?
- Tona vs Pobla Mafumet is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Tona, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.