Vinhais vs Ponte da Barca: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 20Kick-off on February 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Vinhais, Vinhais
The Footlab model makes Vinhais the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Ponte da Barca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vinhais vs Ponte da Barca?
Ponte da Barca starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (1,786 vs 1,686).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 7 matches in all competitions, Vinhais have 0 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Ponte da Barca have 2, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Tirsense(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Maria da Fonte(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Ançã(away) | 1-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Vianense(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 11, 2022 | Vianense(home) | 0-4 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Maia Lidador(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vila Meã(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 8, 2019 | Merelinense(away) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 25, 2016 | Estarreja(away) | 1-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 4, 2016 | Montalegre(home) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Vinhais score 0.4 and concede 3.1 goals per match over their last 7; Ponte da Barca score 0.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinhais | 0.4 | 3.1 | 0 | 3/7 | 6/7 |
| Ponte da Barca | 0.8 | 1.0 | 3 | 2/5 | 2/5 |
Over the last 7 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vinhais sit 14th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (0 points from 2 matches) and Ponte da Barca sit 8th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Ponte da Barca | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Vinhais | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vinhais vs Ponte da Barca?
- The Footlab model makes Vinhais the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Ponte da Barca.
- Where and when is Vinhais vs Ponte da Barca played?
- Vinhais vs Ponte da Barca is played on February 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Vinhais, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.