Virtus Francavilla vs Melfi: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 19Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Giovanni Paolo II, Francavilla Fontana
The Footlab AI model makes Virtus Francavilla the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Melfi. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,422 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Virtus Francavilla vs Melfi?
Virtus Francavilla starts as the favourite with a 193-point Elo edge (1,691 vs 1,499).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Virtus Francavilla vs Melfi
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Virtus Francavilla
Not enough data to predict the Virtus Francavilla lineup.
Melfi
4-3-3- 7Davide Lodesani
- 18Alessandro De Vena
- 20Gianluca De Angelis
- 29Bruno Leonardo Vicente
- 17A. Esposito
- 24A. Gammone
- 5G. Laezza
- 15M. Russu
- 13L. Libutti
- 9C. Foggia
- 1R. Gragnaniello
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:07 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Virtus Francavilla have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Melfi have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Forio 2014(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Gravina(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Gravina(away) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Gladiator(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Martina Franca(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Ischia(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Nocerina(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Ebolitana(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Francavilla(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Nardò(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Virtus Francavilla wins, 0 draws, 1 Melfi win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Melfi 0-1 Virtus Francavilla | Serie D - Girone H |
| Mar 19, 2017 | Virtus Francavilla 0-1 Melfi | Serie C - Girone A |
| Oct 30, 2016 | Melfi 0-1 Virtus Francavilla | Serie C - Girone A |
Last archived meeting: Melfi vs Virtus Francavilla on Sep 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Virtus Francavilla score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Melfi score 0.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Francavilla | 1.6 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Melfi | 0.6 | 1.3 | 3 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Virtus Francavilla sit 1st in Serie D - Girone H (18 points from 7 matches) and Melfi sit 18th (4 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 18 |
| 18 | Melfi | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 4 |
A question about Virtus Francavilla vs Melfi?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Virtus Francavilla vs Melfi?
- The Footlab AI model makes Virtus Francavilla the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Melfi.
- Where and when is Virtus Francavilla vs Melfi played?
- Virtus Francavilla vs Melfi is played on January 10, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giovanni Paolo II, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.