Xelajú vs Firpo: prediction and stats
CONCACAF Central American CupGroup StageKick-off on August 27, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC)Estadio Mario Camposeco, Quetzaltenango
The Footlab model makes Xelajú the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Firpo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Xelajú vs Firpo?
Firpo starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,803 vs 1,698).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Xelajú have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Firpo have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Municipal(away) | 0-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Diriangén(home) | 2-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Plaza Amador(away) | 2-5 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Malacateco(away) | 2-2 | Liga Nacional |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Aurora(home) | 3-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Platense(home) | 1-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 21, 2026 | LD Alajuelense(home) | 1-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Inca Aruba(away) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Diriangén(home) | 4-0 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Municipal Limeño(home) | 2-0 | Primera Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Xelajú score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Firpo score 1.6 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xelajú | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Firpo | 1.6 | 0.6 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Xelajú vs Firpo?
- The Footlab model makes Xelajú the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Firpo.
- Where and when is Xelajú vs Firpo played?
- Xelajú vs Firpo is played on August 27, 2026 at 02:30 AM (UTC) at Estadio Mario Camposeco, in the CONCACAF Central American Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.