Xerez Deportivo vs Conil: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Group 10 - 28Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Chapín, Jerez de la Frontera
The Footlab model makes Xerez Deportivo the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Conil. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Xerez Deportivo vs Conil?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Xerez Deportivo (1,804) and Conil (1,757).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Xerez Deportivo have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Conil have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mijas Las Lagunas(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Recreativo Huelva(away) | 2-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Xerez(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Deportiva Minera(away) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Linares Deportivo(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Linense(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| May 3, 2026 | Recreativo Huelva(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Pozoblanco(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | San Roque Lepe(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Castilleja(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Xerez Deportivo win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Conil win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2024 | Xerez Deportivo 1-0 Conil | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Dec 17, 2023 | Conil 0-1 Xerez Deportivo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Mar 7, 2021 | Xerez Deportivo 1-0 Conil | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Dec 9, 2020 | Conil 1-1 Xerez Deportivo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Nov 24, 2019 | Xerez Deportivo 0-1 Conil | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
Last archived meeting: Xerez Deportivo vs Conil on May 1, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Xerez Deportivo score 0.6 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Conil score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xerez Deportivo | 0.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Conil | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Conil | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 43 | 44 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Xerez Deportivo vs Conil?
- The Footlab model makes Xerez Deportivo the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Conil.
- Where and when is Xerez Deportivo vs Conil played?
- Xerez Deportivo vs Conil is played on March 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Chapín, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 10.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.