York United vs Atlético Ottawa: prediction and stats
Canadian Premier LeagueGroup StageKick-off on October 25, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)York Lions Stadium, Toronto, Ontario
The Footlab model makes Atlético Ottawa the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for York United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa starts as the favourite with a 118-point Elo edge (1,760 vs 1,642).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, York United have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Atlético Ottawa have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Supra du Quebec(home) | 1-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | HFX Wanderers FC(home) | 4-3 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pacific FC(away) | 1-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cavalry FC(away) | 0-5 | Canadian Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Forge(home) | 1-3 | Canadian Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cavalry FC(away) | 1-3 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Vancouver FC(home) | 4-0 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Supra du Quebec(away) | 2-1 | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Supra du Quebec(home) | 3-3 | Canadian Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | HFX Wanderers FC(home) | 2-1 | Canadian Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 York United win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Atlético Ottawa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | Atlético Ottawa 1-1 York United | Canadian Premier League |
| May 1, 2026 | York United 4-1 Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2025 | York United 2-2 Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Atlético Ottawa 0-0 York United | Canadian Premier League |
| Jul 8, 2025 | York United 3-4 Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Championship |
| Jun 22, 2025 | York United 0-0 Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Atlético Ottawa vs York United on Jul 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
York United score 1.2 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético Ottawa score 2.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York United | 1.2 | 2.3 | 1 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
| Atlético Ottawa | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1 | 13/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
York United sit 7th in Canadian Premier League (17 points from 15 matches) and Atlético Ottawa sit 3rd (30 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 33 | 30 |
| 7 | York United | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 20 | 34 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for York United vs Atlético Ottawa?
- The Footlab model makes Atlético Ottawa the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for York United.
- Where and when is York United vs Atlético Ottawa played?
- York United vs Atlético Ottawa is played on October 25, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at York Lions Stadium, in the Canadian Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 4, 2026Forge2-0Atlético Ottawa
- Apr 4, 2026Vancouver FC0-1HFX Wanderers FC
- Apr 5, 2026Pacific FC1-2Cavalry FC
- Apr 11, 2026York United2-2HFX Wanderers FC
- Apr 11, 2026Pacific FC2-3Supra du Quebec
- Apr 12, 2026Cavalry FC3-1Atlético Ottawa
- Apr 12, 2026Vancouver FC0-1Forge
- Apr 18, 2026HFX Wanderers FC2-2Pacific FC