Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Murom: prediction and stats
Second League - Group 2Group 2 - 24Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Nova Arena, Sankt-Peterburg (St. Petersburg)
The Footlab model makes Murom the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Zvezda St. Petersburg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Murom?
A very open match: only 88 Elo points separate Zvezda St. Petersburg (1,586) and Murom (1,674).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Zvezda St. Petersburg have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Murom have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dinamo Vologda(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Luki-Energiya(home) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Baltika II(away) | 3-4 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Yenisey II(home) | 4-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Chertanovo Moscow(away) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Baltika II(away) | 0-3 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Yenisey II(home) | 1-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Metallurg Lipetsk(home) | 0-0 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Chertanovo Moscow(away) | 2-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kosmos Dolgoprudny(home) | 3-1 | Second League - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Zvezda St. Petersburg win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Murom win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Murom 3-0 Zvezda St. Petersburg | Second League - Group 2 |
| May 15, 2023 | Murom 3-3 Zvezda St. Petersburg | Second League - Group 2 |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Zvezda St. Petersburg 2-3 Murom | Second League - Group 2 |
| May 22, 2022 | Zvezda St. Petersburg 1-2 Murom | Second League - Group 2 |
| Apr 23, 2022 | Murom 1-0 Zvezda St. Petersburg | Second League - Group 2 |
| May 11, 2021 | Murom 2-2 Zvezda St. Petersburg | Second League - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Murom vs Zvezda St. Petersburg on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Zvezda St. Petersburg score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Murom score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zvezda St. Petersburg | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
| Murom | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Zvezda St. Petersburg sit 9th in Second League - Group 2 (12 points from 11 matches) and Murom sit 4th (22 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Murom | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 16 | 38 |
| 4 | Murom | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 22 |
| 9 | Zvezda St. Petersburg | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 12 |
| 11 | Zvezda St. Petersburg | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 24 | 26 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Murom?
- The Footlab model makes Murom the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Zvezda St. Petersburg.
- Where and when is Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Murom played?
- Zvezda St. Petersburg vs Murom is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Nova Arena, in the Second League - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.