AD Carmelita vs Cariari Pococi: prediction and stats
Liga de AscensoRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Rafael Bolaños, Alajuela
The Footlab model makes AD Carmelita the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Cariari Pococi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AD Carmelita vs Cariari Pococi?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate AD Carmelita (1,499) and Cariari Pococi (1,541).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AD Carmelita have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Cariari Pococi have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Guadalupe FC(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Futbol Consultants Moravia(home) | 1-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Santa Ana(home) | 2-3 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 2, 2026 | CS Uruguay(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Aserri FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Futbol Consultants Moravia(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Aug 8, 2026 | CS Uruguay(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Aserri FC(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Futbol Consultants Moravia(home) | 0-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
| Mar 29, 2026 | CS Uruguay(away) | 0-1 | Liga de Ascenso |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 AD Carmelita win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Cariari Pococi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | Cariari Pococi 2-1 AD Carmelita | Liga de Ascenso |
| Jan 23, 2026 | AD Carmelita 1-1 Cariari Pococi | Liga de Ascenso |
| Oct 11, 2025 | AD Carmelita 1-1 Cariari Pococi | Liga de Ascenso |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Cariari Pococi 0-2 AD Carmelita | Copa Costa Rica |
| Sep 24, 2025 | AD Carmelita 1-1 Cariari Pococi | Copa Costa Rica |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Cariari Pococi 1-1 AD Carmelita | Liga de Ascenso |
Last archived meeting: Cariari Pococi vs AD Carmelita on Mar 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AD Carmelita score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Cariari Pococi score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Carmelita | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Cariari Pococi | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AD Carmelita sit 9th in Liga de Ascenso (5 points from 4 matches) and Cariari Pococi sit 6th (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cariari Pococi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | AD Carmelita | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AD Carmelita vs Cariari Pococi?
- The Footlab model makes AD Carmelita the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Cariari Pococi.
- Where and when is AD Carmelita vs Cariari Pococi played?
- AD Carmelita vs Cariari Pococi is played on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Rafael Bolaños, in the Liga de Ascenso.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.