AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta
The Footlab model makes Las Palmas the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for AD Ceuta FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate AD Ceuta FC (1,951) and Las Palmas (2,004).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AD Ceuta FC have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Las Palmas have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Andorra(away) | 1-5 | Segunda División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Cadiz(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 30, 2026 | Albacete(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Albacete(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cadiz(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | NEOM(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | União de Leiria(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Al-Ittihad FC(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 AD Ceuta FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Las Palmas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Las Palmas 4-0 AD Ceuta FC | Segunda División |
| Dec 14, 2025 | AD Ceuta FC 1-1 Las Palmas | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: Las Palmas vs AD Ceuta FC on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AD Ceuta FC score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Las Palmas score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Ceuta FC | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Las Palmas | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AD Ceuta FC sit 22nd in Segunda División (0 points from 1 matches) and Las Palmas sit 6th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Las Palmas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas?
- The Footlab model makes Las Palmas the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for AD Ceuta FC.
- Where and when is AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas played?
- AD Ceuta FC vs Las Palmas is played on August 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.