Sporting Gijon vs Burgos: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 2Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal El Molinón, Gijón
The Footlab model makes Sporting Gijon the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Burgos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Sporting Gijon (1,960) and Burgos (2,018).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting Gijon have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Burgos have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Sabadell(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valladolid(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cordoba(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 31, 2026 | FC Andorra(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sporting Gijon win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Burgos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Burgos 1-0 Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Sporting Gijon 2-3 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Sporting Gijon 2-0 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Burgos 0-2 Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Burgos 1-0 Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Sporting Gijon 2-1 Burgos | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: Burgos vs Sporting Gijon on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting Gijon score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Burgos score 1.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Gijon | 1.7 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Burgos | 1.1 | 0.8 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sporting Gijon sit 10th in Segunda División (1 points from 1 matches) and Burgos sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Burgos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Sporting Gijon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?
- The Footlab model makes Sporting Gijon the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Burgos.
- Where and when is Sporting Gijon vs Burgos played?
- Sporting Gijon vs Burgos is played on August 23, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal El Molinón, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.