AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, Ceuta
The Footlab model makes AD Ceuta FC the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Valladolid. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate AD Ceuta FC (1,951) and Valladolid (1,877).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AD Ceuta FC have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Valladolid have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Andorra(away) | 1-5 | Segunda División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Cadiz(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 30, 2026 | Albacete(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mallorca(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Gimnástica Segoviana(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | CD Coria(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 AD Ceuta FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Valladolid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC 0-3 Valladolid | Segunda División |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Valladolid 3-0 AD Ceuta FC | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid on Jan 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AD Ceuta FC score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Valladolid score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Ceuta FC | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Valladolid | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AD Ceuta FC sit 22nd in Segunda División (0 points from 1 matches) and Valladolid sit 20th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Valladolid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid?
- The Footlab model makes AD Ceuta FC the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Valladolid.
- Where and when is AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid played?
- AD Ceuta FC vs Valladolid is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.