Las Palmas vs Burgos: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria
The Footlab model makes Las Palmas the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Burgos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Las Palmas vs Burgos?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Las Palmas (2,005) and Burgos (2,018).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Las Palmas have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Burgos have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Albacete(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cadiz(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | NEOM(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | União de Leiria(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Al-Ittihad FC(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cordoba(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 31, 2026 | FC Andorra(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Las Palmas win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Burgos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Las Palmas 0-0 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Burgos 0-0 Las Palmas | Segunda División |
| Feb 6, 2023 | Burgos 0-0 Las Palmas | Segunda División |
| Nov 1, 2022 | Las Palmas 0-2 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Feb 13, 2022 | Las Palmas 0-2 Burgos | Segunda División |
| Sep 20, 2021 | Burgos 0-0 Las Palmas | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Las Palmas score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Burgos score 1.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Burgos | 1.1 | 0.8 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Las Palmas sit 6th in Segunda División (3 points from 1 matches) and Burgos sit 5th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Burgos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Las Palmas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Las Palmas vs Burgos?
- The Footlab model makes Las Palmas the favourite at 44%, against 30% for a draw and 26% for Burgos.
- Where and when is Las Palmas vs Burgos played?
- Las Palmas vs Burgos is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Gran Canaria, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.