AD Nogueirense vs Fátima: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 12Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Santo António, Nogueira do Cravo
The Footlab AI model makes AD Nogueirense the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Fátima. The most likely score is 1-1. If AD Nogueirense wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,500 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AD Nogueirense vs Fátima?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate AD Nogueirense (1,779) and Fátima (1,836).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AD Nogueirense vs Fátima
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AD Nogueirense
Not enough data to predict the AD Nogueirense lineup.
Fátima
4-3-3- 16Rodri
- 20T. Silva
- 11D. Goncalves
- 17R. Omrani
- 2F. Moura
- 6Alex Silva
- 5B. Beato
- 4J. Santos
- 23J. Escoval
- MM. Marques
- 24E. Tetteh
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 11:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 11 matches in all competitions, AD Nogueirense have 1 win, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Fátima have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 3-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | FC Alverca II(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Naval 1893(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(away) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | UD da Serra(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Fazendense(home) | 6-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sertanense(away) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nazarenos(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Vinhais(home) | 4-1 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
AD Nogueirense score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 11; Fátima score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD Nogueirense | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1 | 6/11 | 5/11 |
| Fátima | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 11 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AD Nogueirense sit 9th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (7 points from 6 matches) and Fátima sit 11th (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | AD Nogueirense | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 7 |
| 11 | Fátima | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 5 |
A question about AD Nogueirense vs Fátima?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AD Nogueirense vs Fátima?
- The Footlab AI model makes AD Nogueirense the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Fátima.
- Where and when is AD Nogueirense vs Fátima played?
- AD Nogueirense vs Fátima is played on December 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Santo António, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.