Adelaide United vs Melbourne City: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on January 29, 2027 at 08:40 AM (UTC)Coopers Stadium, Adelaide
The Footlab model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Adelaide United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Adelaide United vs Melbourne City?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Adelaide United (1,805) and Melbourne City (1,882).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Adelaide United have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Melbourne City have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Công An Nhân Dân(home) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Jul 30, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-2 | Australia Cup |
| May 15, 2026 | Auckland(home) | 0-3 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Palermo(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Weston Bears(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Adelaide United(home) | 1-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Adelaide United win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Melbourne City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Melbourne City 1-2 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Adelaide United 4-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Melbourne City 0-0 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Adelaide United 1-0 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Jan 25, 2024 | Melbourne City 1-0 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Adelaide United 6-0 Melbourne City | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne City vs Adelaide United on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Adelaide United score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne City score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide United | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
| Melbourne City | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Adelaide United sit 2nd in A-League (43 points from 26 matches) and Melbourne City sit 6th (38 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Adelaide United | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46 | 36 | 43 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Adelaide United vs Melbourne City?
- The Footlab model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Adelaide United.
- Where and when is Adelaide United vs Melbourne City played?
- Adelaide United vs Melbourne City is played on January 29, 2027 at 08:40 AM (UTC) at Coopers Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.