Adelaide United vs Melbourne City: prediction and stats
A-LeagueMatchday 15Kick-off on January 29, 2027 at 08:40 AM (UTC)Coopers Stadium, Adelaide
The Footlab AI model makes Adelaide United the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Melbourne City. The most likely score is 1-1. If Adelaide United wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 5,926 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Adelaide United vs Melbourne City?
On Elo ratings, Adelaide United has 1,686 points and Melbourne City 1,801.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Adelaide United vs Melbourne City
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Adelaide United
4-4-2- 35Brody Burkitt
- 27Mitchell Smith
- 55E. Alagich
- 23L. Đuzel
- 10Juan Muñiz
- 11C. Goodwin
- 4P. Kikianis
- 14J. Barnett
- 52S. Phillis
- 7R. Kitto
- 22J. Smits
Melbourne City
4-2-3-1- 15A. Nabbout
- 24Kavian Rahmani
- 23M. Memeti
- 11A. Mabil
- 14Besian Kutleshi
- 19Q. Macnicol
- 2H. Delbridge
- 13N. Atkinson
- 16A. Behich
- 18J. Cascante
- 40J. Nieuwenhuizen
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 06:37 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Adelaide United have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Melbourne City have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(home) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Nov 5, 2026 | Home United(away) | 0-5 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Perth Glory(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Home United(home) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-3 | A-League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Adelaide United wins, 1 draw, 1 Melbourne City win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Melbourne City 1-2 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Adelaide United 4-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Melbourne City 0-0 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Adelaide United 1-0 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Jan 25, 2024 | Melbourne City 1-0 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Adelaide United 6-0 Melbourne City | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne City vs Adelaide United on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Adelaide United score 1.2 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne City score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide United | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Melbourne City | 1.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Adelaide United sit 12th in A-League (1 point from 3 matches) and Melbourne City sit 4th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Melbourne City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 12 | Adelaide United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
A question about Adelaide United vs Melbourne City?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Adelaide United vs Melbourne City?
- The Footlab AI model makes Adelaide United the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Melbourne City.
- Where and when is Adelaide United vs Melbourne City played?
- Adelaide United vs Melbourne City is played on January 29, 2027 at 08:40 AM (UTC) at Coopers Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.