Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on February 13, 2027 at 08:40 AM (UTC)AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Footlab model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Central Coast Mariners. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners?
Melbourne City starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,882 vs 1,759).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Melbourne City have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Central Coast Mariners have 5, 7 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Palermo(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Weston Bears(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Adelaide United(home) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Sydney United(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Newcastle Jets(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(home) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Melbourne City win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Central Coast Mariners win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2026 | Melbourne City 2-1 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Central Coast Mariners 0-0 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Melbourne City 1-0 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Dec 31, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 1-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners on Apr 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Melbourne City score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Central Coast Mariners score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Central Coast Mariners | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Melbourne City sit 6th in A-League (38 points from 26 matches) and Central Coast Mariners sit 9th (32 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 38 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 42 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners?
- The Footlab model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Central Coast Mariners.
- Where and when is Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners played?
- Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners is played on February 13, 2027 at 08:40 AM (UTC) at AAMI Park, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.