Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC)McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Newcastle Jets. The most likely score is 1-1. If Melbourne Victory wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,712 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Newcastle Jets (1,864) and Melbourne Victory (1,914).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Newcastle Jets
4-1-4-1- 9N. Vergos
- 14M. Burgess
- 43X. Bertoncello
- 6Z. Schreiber
- 27J. Recchia
- 11J. Lolley
- 23D. Wilmering
- 22J. Bertolissio
- 39T. Aquilina
- 5J. Shaughnessy
- 1J. Delianov
Melbourne Victory
4-2-3-1- 44C. Nduka
- 8J. Valadon
- 14M. Grimaldi
- 10D. Genreau
- 21G. May
- 23K. Jelacic
- 16J. Inserra
- 3J. Davidson
- 4P. Ziereis
- 36H. Shillington
- 25J. Duncan
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 10:21 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle Jets have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Melbourne Victory have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga(away) | 2-5 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Macarthur(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 1-3 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-7 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Wellington Phoenix(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | FC Seoul(home) | 3-0 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Viettel(away) | 1-1 | AFC Champions League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Newcastle Jets wins, 3 draws, 1 Melbourne Victory win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 2-2 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 5-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| May 4, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 1-1 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 3-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Newcastle Jets 1-1 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Melbourne Victory 5-3 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets on Apr 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle Jets score 1.7 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne Victory score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Jets | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1 | 14/15 | 11/15 |
| Melbourne Victory | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newcastle Jets sit 7th in A-League (2 points from 2 matches) and Melbourne Victory sit 8th (1 point from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
A question about Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory?
- The Footlab AI model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Newcastle Jets.
- Where and when is Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory played?
- Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory is played on January 30, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC) at McDonald Jones Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.