Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC)McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
The Footlab model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Newcastle Jets. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Newcastle Jets (1,890) and Melbourne Victory (1,900).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle Jets have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Melbourne Victory have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 21, 2026 | Preston Lions(away) | 2-3 | Australia Cup |
| May 16, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Sydney(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 4-0 | A-League |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | APIA Leichhardt Tigers(away) | 1-0 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Kingborough Lions(away) | 4-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 0-1 | A-League |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(away) | 2-0 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Newcastle Jets win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Melbourne Victory win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Melbourne Victory 2-2 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 5-2 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| May 4, 2025 | Melbourne Victory 1-1 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 3-0 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Newcastle Jets 1-1 Melbourne Victory | A-League |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Melbourne Victory 5-3 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne Victory vs Newcastle Jets on Apr 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle Jets score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne Victory score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Jets | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Melbourne Victory | 2.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newcastle Jets sit 1st in A-League (48 points from 26 matches) and Melbourne Victory sit 4th (40 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55 | 39 | 48 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 33 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory?
- The Footlab model makes Melbourne Victory the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Newcastle Jets.
- Where and when is Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory played?
- Newcastle Jets vs Melbourne Victory is played on January 30, 2027 at 06:00 AM (UTC) at McDonald Jones Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.