Adria vs Šobec Lesce: prediction and stats
3. SNL - WestWest - 6Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Igrišče Pri Štantu Miren, Miren
The Footlab model makes Adria the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Šobec Lesce. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Adria vs Šobec Lesce?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Adria (1,379) and Šobec Lesce (1,388).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Adria have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Šobec Lesce have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Izola(home) | 2-4 | 3. SNL - West |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Žiri(away) | 1-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Tolmin(home) | 1-3 | Cup |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Vipava(home) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Oct 4, 2023 | Primorje(home) | 0-4 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Svoboda(home) | 1-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rudar Trbovlje(away) | 0-0 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 23, 2026 | IB 1975 Ljubljana(home) | 4-1 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 17, 2026 | Izola(away) | 1-2 | 3. SNL - West |
| May 9, 2026 | Dren Vrhnika(home) | 1-5 | 3. SNL - West |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Adria win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Šobec Lesce win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2021 | Šobec Lesce 0-6 Adria | 3. SNL - West |
| May 5, 2021 | Adria 2-1 Šobec Lesce | 3. SNL - West |
How many goals should we expect?
Adria score 1.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Šobec Lesce score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adria | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Šobec Lesce | 1.2 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Adria sit 11th in 3. SNL - West (1 points from 2 matches) and Šobec Lesce sit 9th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Šobec Lesce | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 11 | Adria | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Adria vs Šobec Lesce?
- The Footlab model makes Adria the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Šobec Lesce.
- Where and when is Adria vs Šobec Lesce played?
- Adria vs Šobec Lesce is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Igrišče Pri Štantu Miren, in the 3. SNL - West.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.