AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis: prediction and stats
Super League 1Regular Season - 3Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)OPAP Arena, Athens
The Footlab model makes AEK Athens FC the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Aris Thessalonikis. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
AEK Athens FC starts as the favourite with a 171-point Elo edge (2,121 vs 1,950).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AEK Athens FC have 8 wins, 6 draws and 1 defeats; Aris Thessalonikis have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Iraklis 1908(home) | 4-0 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 12, 2026 | OFI(home) | 2-2 | Super Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kallithea(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | St. Truiden(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kalamata(away) | 3-2 | Super League 1 |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Anagennisi Karditsas(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Monza(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Levadiakos(home) | 3-0 | Super League 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 AEK Athens FC win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Aris Thessalonikis win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | AEK Athens FC 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 |
| Dec 3, 2024 | Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 AEK Athens FC | Cup |
| Nov 30, 2024 | AEK Athens FC 4-0 Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| Oct 30, 2024 | AEK Athens FC 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Aris Thessalonikis vs AEK Athens FC on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AEK Athens FC score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Aris Thessalonikis score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | 1.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Aris Thessalonikis | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AEK Athens FC sit 1st in Super League 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and Aris Thessalonikis sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
- The Footlab model makes AEK Athens FC the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Aris Thessalonikis.
- Where and when is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis played?
- AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at OPAP Arena, in the Super League 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.