AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeaguePlay-offsKick-off on August 26, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)OPAP Arena, Athens
The Footlab model makes AEK Athens FC the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Levski Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate AEK Athens FC (2,089) and Levski Sofia (2,073).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AEK Athens FC have 8 wins, 6 draws and 1 defeats; Levski Sofia have 11, 4 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 12, 2026 | OFI(home) | 2-2 | Super Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kallithea(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | St. Truiden(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Samsunspor(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Kairat Almaty(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 3-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 AEK Athens FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Levski Sofia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Levski Sofia 0-0 AEK Athens FC | UEFA Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Levski Sofia vs AEK Athens FC on Aug 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AEK Athens FC score 1.8 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Levski Sofia score 2.3 and concede 0.4. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | 1.8 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Levski Sofia | 2.3 | 0.4 | 10 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes AEK Athens FC the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Levski Sofia.
- Where and when is AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia played?
- AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia is played on August 26, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at OPAP Arena, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.