AEK Larnaca vs AEL: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 12Kick-off on December 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, Lárnaka (Larnaca)
The Footlab model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for AEL. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AEK Larnaca vs AEL?
AEK Larnaca starts as the favourite with a 229-point Elo edge (2,011 vs 1,782).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AEK Larnaca have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; AEL have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Omonia Aradippou(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Krasava Odintsovo(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 15, 2026 | Akritas(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| May 9, 2026 | Olympiakos(home) | 1-3 | 1. Division |
| May 2, 2026 | Krasava Ypsonas(away) | 1-1 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 AEK Larnaca win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 AEL win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025 | AEL 0-1 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Aug 31, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 2-0 AEL | 1. Division |
| Feb 2, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 2-0 AEL | 1. Division |
| Oct 27, 2024 | AEL 1-1 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Aug 17, 2024 | AEK Larnaca 1-1 AEL | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 14, 2024 | AEL 2-3 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
AEK Larnaca score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; AEL score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Larnaca | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| AEL | 1.5 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AEK Larnaca sit 2nd in 1. Division (69 points from 36 matches) and AEL sit 8th (44 points from 33 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 36 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 62 | 33 | 69 |
| 8 | AEL | 33 | 13 | 5 | 15 | 41 | 46 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AEK Larnaca vs AEL?
- The Footlab model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for AEL.
- Where and when is AEK Larnaca vs AEL played?
- AEK Larnaca vs AEL is played on December 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.