AEK Larnaca vs AEL: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 12Kick-off on December 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, Lárnaka (Larnaca)
The Footlab AI model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for AEL. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AEK Larnaca vs AEL?
AEK Larnaca starts as the favourite with a 209-point Elo edge (2,049 vs 1,841).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AEK Larnaca vs AEL
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AEK Larnaca
4-2-3-1- 11R. Bajić
- 14A. Layouni
- 7Gus Ledes
- 20J. Repas
- 9Đ. Ivanović
- 6I. Pankov
- 15H. Miličević
- 3M. van der Hoorn
- 17K. Pileas
- 23S. Köhler
- 92A. Paleari
AEL
4-2-3-1- 77F. Mughe
- 11L. Singh
- 20João Tavares
- 30G. Papageorgiou
- 6D. Zdravkovski
- 19I. Milosavljević
- 23Diogo Gomes
- 33E. Antoniou
- 22K. Neofytou
- 35Sérgio Conceição
- 1S. Kapino
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:02 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AEK Larnaca have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; AEL have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Omonia Aradippou(home) | 1-0 | 1. Division |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Nea Salamis(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Omonia 29is Maiou(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Pafos(home) | 0-1 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Omonia 29is Maiou(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Pafos(away) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Nea Salamis(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Apoel Nicosia(away) | 0-6 | 1. Division |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Anorthosis(home) | 2-0 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 AEK Larnaca wins, 2 draws, 0 AEL wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025 | AEL 0-1 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Aug 31, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 2-0 AEL | 1. Division |
| Feb 2, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 2-0 AEL | 1. Division |
| Oct 27, 2024 | AEL 1-1 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Aug 17, 2024 | AEK Larnaca 1-1 AEL | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 14, 2024 | AEL 2-3 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
AEK Larnaca score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; AEL score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Larnaca | 1.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| AEL | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AEK Larnaca sit 4th in 1. Division (9 points from 4 matches) and AEL sit 1st (12 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 | AEK Larnaca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 9 |
A question about AEK Larnaca vs AEL?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AEK Larnaca vs AEL?
- The Footlab AI model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 57%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for AEL.
- Where and when is AEK Larnaca vs AEL played?
- AEK Larnaca vs AEL is played on December 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.