AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 5Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, Lárnaka (Larnaca)
The Footlab model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Omonia Aradippou. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou?
AEK Larnaca starts as the favourite with a 261-point Elo edge (2,011 vs 1,750).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AEK Larnaca have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Omonia Aradippou have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Omonia Aradippou(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | AEK Larnaca(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 15, 2026 | Ethnikos Achna(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| May 9, 2026 | Akritas(home) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
| May 1, 2026 | Olympiakos(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Krasava Ypsonas(home) | 1-1 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 AEK Larnaca win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Omonia Aradippou win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | AEK Larnaca 0-1 Omonia Aradippou | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Omonia Aradippou 2-1 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Nov 9, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 1-0 Omonia Aradippou | 1. Division |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Omonia Aradippou 2-0 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Dec 6, 2024 | AEK Larnaca 1-0 Omonia Aradippou | 1. Division |
| Jul 18, 2020 | AEK Larnaca 4-0 Omonia Aradippou | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AEK Larnaca score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Omonia Aradippou score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Larnaca | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Omonia Aradippou | 1.2 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AEK Larnaca sit 2nd in 1. Division (69 points from 36 matches) and Omonia Aradippou sit 9th (42 points from 33 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 36 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 62 | 33 | 69 |
| 9 | Omonia Aradippou | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | 31 | 42 | 42 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou?
- The Footlab model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Omonia Aradippou.
- Where and when is AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou played?
- AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou is played on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.