AEK Larnaca vs Pafos: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, Lárnaka (Larnaca)
The Footlab model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Pafos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AEK Larnaca vs Pafos?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate AEK Larnaca (2,011) and Pafos (2,021).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AEK Larnaca have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Pafos have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Omonia Aradippou(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Beitar Jerusalem(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(home) | 3-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 AEK Larnaca win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Pafos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | AEK Larnaca 2-2 Pafos | 1. Division |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Pafos 1-1 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Pafos 1-2 AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Pafos 1-1 AEK Larnaca | Super Cup |
| Oct 5, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 2-4 Pafos | 1. Division |
| May 24, 2025 | AEK Larnaca 0-0 Pafos | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
AEK Larnaca score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Pafos score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Larnaca | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Pafos | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AEK Larnaca sit 2nd in 1. Division (69 points from 36 matches) and Pafos sit 4th (62 points from 36 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | AEK Larnaca | 36 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 62 | 33 | 69 |
| 4 | Pafos | 36 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 66 | 38 | 62 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AEK Larnaca vs Pafos?
- The Footlab model makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Pafos.
- Where and when is AEK Larnaca vs Pafos played?
- AEK Larnaca vs Pafos is played on September 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.