Ahlafors vs Stenungsund: prediction and stats
Division 2 - Norra GötalandNorra Götaland - 25Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Svenska Stenhus Arena 1 Gräs, Alafors
The Footlab model makes Ahlafors the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Stenungsund. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ahlafors vs Stenungsund?
Ahlafors starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (1,544 vs 1,400).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ahlafors have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Stenungsund have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Lidköping(away) | 2-2 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Grebbestad(home) | 3-1 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 8, 2026 | IF Karlstad II(home) | 2-0 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jul 31, 2026 | IFK Skövde(away) | 0-0 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Tord(home) | 2-2 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Grebbestad(away) | 1-1 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kumla(home) | 5-0 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lidköping(away) | 2-1 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Skara(home) | 1-1 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Trollhättan(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Ahlafors win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Stenungsund win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | Stenungsund 0-4 Ahlafors | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 16, 2024 | Ahlafors 1-1 Stenungsund | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Stenungsund 0-0 Ahlafors | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Oct 1, 2022 | Ahlafors 3-2 Stenungsund | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jun 17, 2022 | Stenungsund 1-2 Ahlafors | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 25, 2021 | Stenungsund 1-2 Ahlafors | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
Last archived meeting: Stenungsund vs Ahlafors on Jun 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ahlafors score 2.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Stenungsund score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahlafors | 2.3 | 1.0 | 6 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Stenungsund | 1.9 | 1.6 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ahlafors sit 4th in Division 2 - Norra Götaland (22 points from 13 matches) and Stenungsund sit 6th (18 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ahlafors | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 29 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 | Ahlafors | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 38 | 22 | 31 |
| 6 | Stenungsund | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 18 |
| 7 | Stenungsund | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 34 | 25 | 26 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ahlafors vs Stenungsund?
- The Footlab model makes Ahlafors the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Stenungsund.
- Where and when is Ahlafors vs Stenungsund played?
- Ahlafors vs Stenungsund is played on October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Svenska Stenhus Arena 1 Gräs, in the Division 2 - Norra Götaland.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.