Vänersborgs FK vs Kumla: prediction and stats
Division 2 - Norra GötalandNorra Götaland - 25Kick-off on October 8, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC)Vänersvallen Nord, Vänersborg
The Footlab model makes Vänersborgs FK the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Kumla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vänersborgs FK vs Kumla?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Vänersborgs FK (1,360) and Kumla (1,375).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vänersborgs FK have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Kumla have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | IFK Skövde(home) | 0-1 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Vänersborgs IF(away) | 2-0 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Skara(away) | 0-4 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Herrestads(home) | 2-4 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Motala(away) | 1-0 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Husqvarna(home) | 2-6 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stenungsund(away) | 0-5 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vänersborgs IF(home) | 2-1 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Tord(away) | 0-2 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Grebbestad(away) | 1-2 | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Vänersborgs FK win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Kumla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Kumla 0-0 Vänersborgs FK | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Kumla 1-2 Vänersborgs FK | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| May 24, 2025 | Vänersborgs FK 2-1 Kumla | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Vänersborgs FK 0-4 Kumla | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jun 15, 2024 | Kumla 3-2 Vänersborgs FK | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
| Jun 23, 2022 | Kumla 3-1 Vänersborgs FK | Division 2 - Norra Götaland |
Last archived meeting: Kumla vs Vänersborgs FK on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Vänersborgs FK score 1.3 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Kumla score 0.8 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vänersborgs FK | 1.3 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Kumla | 0.8 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vänersborgs FK sit 10th in Division 2 - Norra Götaland (13 points from 13 matches) and Kumla sit 7th (17 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kumla | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 17 |
| 9 | Kumla | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 30 | 20 |
| 10 | Vänersborgs FK | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 24 | 13 |
| 10 | Vänersborgs FK | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 33 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vänersborgs FK vs Kumla?
- The Footlab model makes Vänersborgs FK the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Kumla.
- Where and when is Vänersborgs FK vs Kumla played?
- Vänersborgs FK vs Kumla is played on October 8, 2026 at 05:30 PM (UTC) at Vänersvallen Nord, in the Division 2 - Norra Götaland.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.