Airdrie United vs Hamilton Academical: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Albert Bartlett Stadium, Airdrie
The Footlab model makes Hamilton Academical the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Airdrie United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Airdrie United vs Hamilton Academical?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Airdrie United (1,656) and Hamilton Academical (1,724).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Airdrie United have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Hamilton Academical have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Stirling Albion(home) | 1-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ross County(home) | 1-3 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hamilton Academical(away) | 0-4 | League One |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Dumbarton(away) | 3-1 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | East Kilbride(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Edinburgh City(home) | 0-1 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | East Fife(away) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Airdrie United(home) | 4-0 | League One |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Celtic II(home) | 1-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(home) | 1-0 | League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Airdrie United win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Hamilton Academical win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hamilton Academical 4-0 Airdrie United | League One |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Airdrie United 4-0 Hamilton Academical | FA Cup |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Airdrie United 2-1 Hamilton Academical | Championship |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Hamilton Academical 3-2 Airdrie United | Championship |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Airdrie United 0-4 Hamilton Academical | Championship |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Hamilton Academical 2-2 Airdrie United | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Hamilton Academical vs Airdrie United on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Airdrie United score 1.0 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Hamilton Academical score 2.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airdrie United | 1.0 | 1.9 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Hamilton Academical | 2.1 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Airdrie United sit 9th in League One (2 points from 4 matches) and Hamilton Academical sit 1st (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamilton Academical | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Airdrie United | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Airdrie United vs Hamilton Academical?
- The Footlab model makes Hamilton Academical the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Airdrie United.
- Where and when is Airdrie United vs Hamilton Academical played?
- Airdrie United vs Hamilton Academical is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Albert Bartlett Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.