Al Ahli Tripoli vs KMKM: prediction and stats
CAF Confederation Cup1st Preliminary RoundKick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)11 June Stadium, Tripoli
The Footlab model makes Al Ahli Tripoli the favourite at 81%, against 14% for a draw and 5% for KMKM. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Ahli Tripoli vs KMKM?
Al Ahli Tripoli is a heavy favourite: 2,006 Elo points against 1,450 — a 557-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Ahli Tripoli have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; KMKM have 4, 1 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Asswehly(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| May 20, 2026 | Olympic Azzaweya(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| May 14, 2026 | Al-Madina(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Alittihad Misurata(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| May 7, 2026 | Al-Ittihad(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2025 | Azam(away) | 0-7 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Port(home) | 2-1 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Port(away) | 2-1 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Kedus Giorgis(away) | 1-3 | CAF Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Al Ahli Tripoli win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 KMKM win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2022 | Al Ahli Tripoli 4-0 KMKM | CAF Champions League |
| Sep 10, 2022 | KMKM 0-2 Al Ahli Tripoli | CAF Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Al Ahli Tripoli vs KMKM on Sep 17, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Al Ahli Tripoli score 1.9 and concede 0.3 goals per match over their last 15; KMKM score 0.9 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ahli Tripoli | 1.9 | 0.3 | 11 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| KMKM | 0.9 | 2.2 | 1 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Ahli Tripoli vs KMKM?
- The Footlab model makes Al Ahli Tripoli the favourite at 81%, against 14% for a draw and 5% for KMKM.
- Where and when is Al Ahli Tripoli vs KMKM played?
- Al Ahli Tripoli vs KMKM is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at 11 June Stadium, in the CAF Confederation Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.