Al Ahli Wad Medani vs Tusker: prediction and stats
CAF Confederation Cup1st Preliminary RoundKick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Al-Jazeera Stadium, Wad Medani (Wad Madani)
The Footlab model makes Al Ahli Wad Medani the favourite at 62%, against 25% for a draw and 13% for Tusker. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Ahli Wad Medani vs Tusker?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Al Ahli Wad Medani (1,600) and Tusker (1,520).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Ahli Wad Medani have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Tusker have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Al Hilal Port Sudan(away) | 2-2 | Sudani Premier League |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Umm Mughad(home) | 3-1 | Sudani Premier League |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Al-Hilal Omdurman II(away) | 0-2 | Sudani Premier League |
| May 29, 2026 | Hay Al Wadi(home) | 3-3 | Sudani Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Al Fallah(home) | 2-0 | Sudani Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | KVZ(home) | 2-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Rayon Sports(home) | 0-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(away) | 0-2 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Police(home) | 2-1 | Shield Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Al Ahli Wad Medani score 2.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Tusker score 0.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ahli Wad Medani | 2.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Tusker | 0.7 | 0.7 | 6 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Ahli Wad Medani vs Tusker?
- The Footlab model makes Al Ahli Wad Medani the favourite at 62%, against 25% for a draw and 13% for Tusker.
- Where and when is Al Ahli Wad Medani vs Tusker played?
- Al Ahli Wad Medani vs Tusker is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Al-Jazeera Stadium, in the CAF Confederation Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.