Al Minaa Basra vs Karbala: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Basra International Stadium, al-Baṣra (Basra)
The Footlab model makes Al Minaa Basra the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Karbala. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Minaa Basra vs Karbala?
Al Minaa Basra starts as the favourite with a 138-point Elo edge (1,475 vs 1,337).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Minaa Basra have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Karbala have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Zakho(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Al Zawra'a(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Al Shorta(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| May 28, 2026 | Al Talaba(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 24, 2026 | Zakho(home) | 2-2 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Zawra'a(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Al Shorta(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Baghdad(away) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Al Hudod(home) | 2-3 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 27, 2025 | Naft(home) | 2-4 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Al Minaa Basra win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Karbala win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2025 | Al Minaa Basra 3-1 Karbala | Iraqi League |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Karbala 1-0 Al Minaa Basra | Iraqi League |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Al Minaa Basra 1-1 Karbala | Iraqi League |
| Dec 29, 2023 | Karbala 1-2 Al Minaa Basra | Iraqi League |
Last archived meeting: Al Minaa Basra vs Karbala on May 19, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Al Minaa Basra score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Karbala score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Minaa Basra | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Karbala | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Minaa Basra sit 5th in Iraqi League (4 points from 2 matches) and Karbala sit 12th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Al Minaa Basra | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Karbala | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Minaa Basra vs Karbala?
- The Footlab model makes Al Minaa Basra the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Karbala.
- Where and when is Al Minaa Basra vs Karbala played?
- Al Minaa Basra vs Karbala is played on November 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Basra International Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.