Karbala vs Ghaz Al Shamal: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Karbala Stadium, Karbala
The Footlab AI model makes Ghaz Al Shamal the favourite at 46%, against 31% for a draw and 23% for Karbala. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,533 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Karbala vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
Ghaz Al Shamal starts as the favourite with a 169-point Elo edge (1,525 vs 1,356).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Karbala vs Ghaz Al Shamal
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Karbala
Not enough data to predict the Karbala lineup.
Ghaz Al Shamal
Not enough data to predict the Ghaz Al Shamal lineup.
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Karbala have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Ghaz Al Shamal have 3, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Al Talaba(home) | 2-2 | Iraqi League |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Duhok(away) | 2-5 | Iraqi League |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Gharraf(home) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Al Kahrabaa(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Erbil(home) | 0-3 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Erbil(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Naft Maysan(home) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Al Zawra'a(home) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Al Minaa Basra(away) | 0-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Newroz(home) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Karbala score 1.1 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ghaz Al Shamal score 0.6 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karbala | 1.1 | 2.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Ghaz Al Shamal | 0.6 | 0.7 | 5 | 4/12 | 0/12 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Karbala sit 20th in Iraqi League (7 points from 12 matches) and Ghaz Al Shamal sit 10th (15 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ghaz Al Shamal | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 15 |
| 20 | Karbala | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 7 |
A question about Karbala vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Karbala vs Ghaz Al Shamal?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ghaz Al Shamal the favourite at 46%, against 31% for a draw and 23% for Karbala.
- Where and when is Karbala vs Ghaz Al Shamal played?
- Karbala vs Ghaz Al Shamal is played on December 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Karbala Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.