Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa: prediction and stats
Stars LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 04:15 PM (UTC)Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium (Al-Sadd Stadium), Doha
The Footlab model makes Al Sadd the favourite at 62%, against 18% for a draw and 20% for Al-Gharafa. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa?
Al Sadd starts as the favourite with a 173-point Elo edge (1,897 vs 1,724).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Sadd have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Al-Gharafa have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Al Ahli Doha(home) | 3-1 | Stars League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Trabzonspor(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Sigma Olomouc(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Al-Gharafa(away) | 1-4 | Emir Cup |
| May 5, 2026 | Al-Duhail SC(away) | 4-1 | Emir Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Shahaniya(home) | 2-1 | Stars League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Al Riyadh(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Šamorín(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Al Sadd(home) | 4-1 | Emir Cup |
| May 5, 2026 | Al Wakrah(away) | 0-0 | Emir Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Al Sadd win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Al-Gharafa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Al-Gharafa 4-1 Al Sadd | Emir Cup |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Al-Gharafa 1-3 Al Sadd | Stars League |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Al-Gharafa 3-3 Al Sadd | QSL Cup |
| Aug 28, 2025 | Al Sadd 2-0 Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| May 14, 2025 | Al-Gharafa 2-2 Al Sadd | Emir Cup |
| Feb 27, 2025 | Al-Gharafa 0-4 Al Sadd | Stars League |
How many goals should we expect?
Al Sadd score 2.5 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Al-Gharafa score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Sadd | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1 | 14/15 | 13/15 |
| Al-Gharafa | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Sadd sit 1st in Stars League (3 points from 1 matches) and Al-Gharafa sit 3rd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Sadd | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa?
- The Footlab model makes Al Sadd the favourite at 62%, against 18% for a draw and 20% for Al-Gharafa.
- Where and when is Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa played?
- Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa is played on September 5, 2026 at 04:15 PM (UTC) at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium (Al-Sadd Stadium), in the Stars League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.