Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City: prediction and stats
Stars LeagueRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Thani Bin Jassim Stadium (Al-Gharafah Stadium), Doha
The Footlab model makes Al-Gharafa the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Lusail City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City?
Al-Gharafa starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (1,723 vs 1,581).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al-Gharafa have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Lusail City have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Shahaniya(home) | 2-1 | Stars League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Al Riyadh(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Šamorín(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Al Sadd(home) | 4-1 | Emir Cup |
| May 5, 2026 | Al Wakrah(away) | 0-0 | Emir Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Al-Rayyan SC(away) | 0-1 | Stars League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Den Bosch(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Al Bidda SC(home) | 1-2 | Second Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Al-Markhiya(away) | 2-0 | Second Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Al-Gharafa win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Lusail City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | Al-Gharafa 1-1 Lusail City | QSL Cup |
| Sep 4, 2023 | Al-Gharafa 0-2 Lusail City | QFA Cup |
Last archived meeting: Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City on Nov 28, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Al-Gharafa score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Lusail City score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Gharafa | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Lusail City | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al-Gharafa sit 3rd in Stars League (3 points from 1 matches) and Lusail City sit 10th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Lusail City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City?
- The Footlab model makes Al-Gharafa the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Lusail City.
- Where and when is Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City played?
- Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City is played on September 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Thani Bin Jassim Stadium (Al-Gharafah Stadium), in the Stars League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.