Alay vs Neftchi: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 29Kick-off on November 2, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Ahmatbek Suyumbayev atyndagy Stadion, Osh
The Footlab AI model makes Alay the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Neftchi. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alay wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.5% of the 3,664 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alay vs Neftchi?
Alay starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,543 vs 1,428).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alay vs Neftchi
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alay
Not enough data to predict the Alay lineup.
Neftchi
Not enough data to predict the Neftchi lineup.
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 01:55 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alay have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Neftchi have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Alga(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Asia Talas(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Abdish-Ata(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Muras United(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Bars(away) | 0-6 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Toktogul(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Kara-Balta(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Muras United(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Asia Talas(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Asiagoal(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Alay wins, 1 draw, 0 Neftchi wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Neftchi 0-2 Alay | Premier League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Alay 4-0 Neftchi | Premier League |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Neftchi 0-2 Alay | Premier League |
| Nov 21, 2024 | Alay 2-1 Neftchi | Premier League |
| May 26, 2024 | Neftchi 2-4 Alay | Premier League |
| Apr 29, 2024 | Alay 1-1 Neftchi | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Alay score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Neftchi score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alay | 1.2 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Neftchi | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alay sit 6th in Premier League (41 points from 27 matches) and Neftchi sit 8th (36 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Alay | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 34 | 34 | 41 |
| 8 | Neftchi | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 38 | 44 | 36 |
A question about Alay vs Neftchi?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alay vs Neftchi?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alay the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 21% for Neftchi.
- Where and when is Alay vs Neftchi played?
- Alay vs Neftchi is played on November 2, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Ahmatbek Suyumbayev atyndagy Stadion, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.