Alcúdia vs Platges Calvià: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Group 11 - 30Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadi Municipal Els Arcs, Mallorca
The Footlab model makes Alcúdia the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Platges Calvià. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alcúdia vs Platges Calvià?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Alcúdia (1,699) and Platges Calvià (1,773).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alcúdia have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Platges Calvià have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Mercadal(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 3, 2026 | Binissalem(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Felanitx(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Portmany(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Cardassar(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 3, 2026 | Manacor(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Mercadal(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Felanitx(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Binissalem(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Alcúdia win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Platges Calvià win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Platges Calvià 1-0 Alcúdia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Alcúdia 1-0 Platges Calvià | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| May 11, 2025 | Alcúdia 6-3 Platges Calvià | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Platges Calvià 1-1 Alcúdia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Apr 10, 2024 | Alcúdia 1-2 Platges Calvià | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
| Nov 18, 2023 | Platges Calvià 1-0 Alcúdia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 |
Last archived meeting: Platges Calvià vs Alcúdia on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alcúdia score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Platges Calvià score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcúdia | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Platges Calvià | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alcúdia sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 (39 points from 34 matches) and Platges Calvià sit 10th (42 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Platges Calvià | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 41 | 42 | 42 |
| 13 | Alcúdia | 34 | 11 | 6 | 18 | 36 | 59 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alcúdia vs Platges Calvià?
- The Footlab model makes Alcúdia the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Platges Calvià.
- Where and when is Alcúdia vs Platges Calvià played?
- Alcúdia vs Platges Calvià is played on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadi Municipal Els Arcs, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.