Aldosivi vs Independ. Rivadavia: prediction and stats
Copa ArgentinaRound of 16Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 10:15 PM (UTC)Estadio José María Minella, Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Independ. Rivadavia the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Aldosivi. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aldosivi vs Independ. Rivadavia?
Independ. Rivadavia starts as the favourite with a 213-point Elo edge (1,965 vs 1,752).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aldosivi have 1 wins, 7 draws and 7 defeats; Independ. Rivadavia have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tigre(home) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Rosario Central(away) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gimnasia L.P.(home) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Barracas Central(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Defensa Y Justicia(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fluminense(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Belgrano Cordoba(away) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Sarmiento Junin(away) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Aldosivi win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Independ. Rivadavia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Aldosivi 1-1 Independ. Rivadavia | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Aldosivi 3-1 Independ. Rivadavia | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Independ. Rivadavia 1-0 Aldosivi | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jun 17, 2023 | Independ. Rivadavia 2-1 Aldosivi | Primera Nacional |
| Feb 10, 2023 | Aldosivi 1-2 Independ. Rivadavia | Primera Nacional |
| Dec 9, 2017 | Aldosivi 0-0 Independ. Rivadavia | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Aldosivi vs Independ. Rivadavia on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aldosivi score 0.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Independ. Rivadavia score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldosivi | 0.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Independ. Rivadavia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aldosivi vs Independ. Rivadavia?
- The Footlab model makes Independ. Rivadavia the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Aldosivi.
- Where and when is Aldosivi vs Independ. Rivadavia played?
- Aldosivi vs Independ. Rivadavia is played on August 26, 2026 at 10:15 PM (UTC) at Estadio José María Minella, in the Copa Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.