Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 16Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Víctor Antonio Legrotaglie, Mendoza, Provincia de Mendoza
The Footlab model makes Independ. Rivadavia the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Gimnasia M.. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia?
Independ. Rivadavia starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (1,972 vs 1,862).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gimnasia M. have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Independ. Rivadavia have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gimnasia L.P.(away) | 3-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(home) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Instituto Cordoba(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Union Santa Fe(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 28, 2026 | San Lorenzo(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Independiente(away) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fluminense(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Belgrano Cordoba(away) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Gimnasia M. win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Independ. Rivadavia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia 5-1 Gimnasia M. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 22, 2022 | Gimnasia M. 1-0 Independ. Rivadavia | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 3, 2022 | Gimnasia M. 2-0 Independ. Rivadavia | Primera Nacional |
| Feb 24, 2022 | Independ. Rivadavia 2-0 Gimnasia M. | Copa Argentina |
| Sep 30, 2018 | Gimnasia M. 1-0 Independ. Rivadavia | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 11, 2015 | Independ. Rivadavia 4-2 Gimnasia M. | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia M. on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gimnasia M. score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Independ. Rivadavia score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia M. | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Independ. Rivadavia | 1.4 | 1.0 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gimnasia M. sit 11th in Liga Profesional Argentina (19 points from 16 matches) and Independ. Rivadavia sit 1st (34 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 34 |
| 2 | Gimnasia M. | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 12 |
| 10 | Independ. Rivadavia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| 11 | Gimnasia M. | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia?
- The Footlab model makes Independ. Rivadavia the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Gimnasia M..
- Where and when is Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia played?
- Gimnasia M. vs Independ. Rivadavia is played on November 8, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Víctor Antonio Legrotaglie, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Nov 8, 2026Rosario CentralvsEstudiantes de Rio Cuarto
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- Nov 8, 2026TigrevsSarmiento Junin
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- Nov 8, 2026Talleres CordobavsEstudiantes L.P.