Alessandria vs Asti: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone AGroup A - 5Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Alessandria
The Footlab model makes Asti the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Alessandria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alessandria vs Asti?
Asti starts as the favourite with a 118-point Elo edge (1,682 vs 1,564).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alessandria have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Asti have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2024 | Vicenza Virtus(home) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Legnago Salus(away) | 0-0 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Pro Patria(home) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Fiorenzuola(away) | 0-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Mar 30, 2024 | PRO Vercelli(home) | 1-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Cairese(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| May 3, 2026 | Club Milano(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ligorna(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sestri Levante(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Saluzzo(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
How many goals should we expect?
Alessandria score 0.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Asti score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandria | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Asti | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Asti | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 32 | 42 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alessandria vs Asti?
- The Footlab model makes Asti the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Alessandria.
- Where and when is Alessandria vs Asti played?
- Alessandria vs Asti is played on September 27, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, in the Serie D - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.