Alfaro vs Calahorra: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Molineta, Alfaro
The Footlab model makes Calahorra the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Alfaro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alfaro vs Calahorra?
Calahorra starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,855 vs 1,742).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alfaro have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Calahorra have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | Real Unión(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | SD Logroñés(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Náxara(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Tudelano(away) | 1-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Real Zaragoza II(home) | 3-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Arnedo(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 17, 2026 | Arnedo(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 9, 2026 | Yagüe(away) | 4-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 3, 2026 | Comillas(home) | 6-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Vianés(away) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Alfaro win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Calahorra win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | Alfaro 0-0 Calahorra | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 13, 2024 | Calahorra 0-0 Alfaro | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Alfaro score 1.1 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Calahorra score 2.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfaro | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Calahorra | 2.2 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Calahorra | 34 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 86 | 26 | 63 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alfaro vs Calahorra?
- The Footlab model makes Calahorra the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Alfaro.
- Where and when is Alfaro vs Calahorra played?
- Alfaro vs Calahorra is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Molineta, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.