Alfreton Town vs Bury: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Impact Arena, Alfreton, Derbyshire
The Footlab model makes Bury the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Alfreton Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alfreton Town vs Bury?
Bury starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (1,897 vs 1,717).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alfreton Town have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; Bury have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 0-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Cleethorpes Town(away) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Avro(home) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity(home) | 2-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Curzon Ashton(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity(away) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(away) | 2-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rylands(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Curzon Ashton(home) | 3-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Redcar Athletic(away) | 0-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
How many goals should we expect?
Alfreton Town score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Bury score 2.0 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfreton Town | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Bury | 2.0 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alfreton Town sit 11th in Non League Premier - Northern (6 points from 5 matches) and Bury sit 7th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bury | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 10 |
| 11 | Alfreton Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alfreton Town vs Bury?
- The Footlab model makes Bury the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Alfreton Town.
- Where and when is Alfreton Town vs Bury played?
- Alfreton Town vs Bury is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Impact Arena, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.