Where and when is Leek Town vs Alfreton Town played?

Leek Town vs Alfreton Town is played on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at F. Ball Community Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Northern.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Leek Town vs Alfreton Town: prediction and stats

Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 19Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)F. Ball Community Stadium, Leek, Staffordshire

Leek Town

Alfreton Town

The Footlab model makes Leek Town the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Alfreton Town. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Leek Town vs Alfreton Town?

A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Leek Town (1,777) and Alfreton Town (1,717).

Leek Town win47 %

Draw27 %

Alfreton Town win26 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leek Town have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Alfreton Town have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Leek Town
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Bamber Bridge(home)	4-1	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 18, 2026	AFC Emley(home)	1-2	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 15, 2026	Stockton Town(away)	1-1	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 11, 2026	United of Manchester(away)	1-1	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 8, 2026	Whitby Town(home)	1-2	Non League Premier - Northern

Alfreton Town
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 25, 2026	Hyde United(home)	4-0	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 22, 2026	Stockton Town(away)	0-2	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 18, 2026	Cleethorpes Town(away)	1-2	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 15, 2026	Avro(home)	3-0	Non League Premier - Northern
Aug 11, 2026	Gainsborough Trinity(home)	2-1	Non League Premier - Northern

How many goals should we expect?

Leek Town score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Alfreton Town score 1.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Leek Town	1.5	1.0	5	9/15	5/15
Alfreton Town	1.3	1.8	3	6/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Leek Town sit 18th in Non League Premier - Northern (5 points from 5 matches) and Alfreton Town sit 9th (9 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
9	Alfreton Town	6	3	0	3	10	6	9
18	Leek Town	5	1	2	2	8	7	5

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Leek Town vs Alfreton Town?: The Footlab model makes Leek Town the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Alfreton Town.
Where and when is Leek Town vs Alfreton Town played?: Leek Town vs Alfreton Town is played on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at F. Ball Community Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.