Alga vs Ilbirs: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Dordoy, Bishkek
The Footlab AI model makes Alga the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Ilbirs. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alga vs Ilbirs?
Alga starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (1,520 vs 1,376).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alga vs Ilbirs
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alga
Not enough data to predict the Alga lineup.
Ilbirs
Not enough data to predict the Ilbirs lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alga have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Ilbirs have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Muras United(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Asiagoal(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Kara-Balta(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Asia Talas(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Neftchi(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | Bars(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Bishkek City(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Muras United(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dordoi Bishkek(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Asia Talas(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Alga win, 3 draws, 2 Ilbirs wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Ilbirs 2-2 Alga | Premier League |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Ilbirs 1-1 Alga | Premier League |
| Jul 2, 2025 | Alga 2-1 Ilbirs | Premier League |
| Oct 24, 2024 | Ilbirs 1-0 Alga | Premier League |
| Aug 21, 2024 | Alga 1-2 Ilbirs | Premier League |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Ilbirs 1-1 Alga | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Alga score 1.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Ilbirs score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alga | 1.8 | 1.2 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Ilbirs | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alga sit 2nd in Premier League (52 points from 25 matches) and Ilbirs sit 11th (28 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alga | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 47 | 27 | 52 |
| 11 | Ilbirs | 24 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 29 | 37 | 28 |
A question about Alga vs Ilbirs?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alga vs Ilbirs?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alga the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Ilbirs.
- Where and when is Alga vs Ilbirs played?
- Alga vs Ilbirs is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Dordoy, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.