Almería II vs Malaga City: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 18Kick-off on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo, Almería
The Footlab model makes Almería II the favourite at 58%, against 26% for a draw and 16% for Malaga City. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Almería II vs Malaga City?
Almería II starts as the favourite with a 158-point Elo edge (1,755 vs 1,597).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Almería II have 1 wins, 5 draws and 9 defeats; Malaga City have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Águilas(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Deportiva Minera(home) | 3-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Yeclano(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Estepona(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Lorca Deportiva(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 4, 2025 | Polideportivo Almería(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 1, 2025 | Real Jaén(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Mancha Real(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Mijas Las Lagunas(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Almería II win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Malaga City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2024 | Malaga City 1-2 Almería II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Jan 7, 2024 | Almería II 6-0 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Malaga City 2-2 Almería II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 30, 2022 | Almería II 3-0 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Malaga City vs Almería II on Apr 28, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Almería II score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Malaga City score 1.0 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almería II | 0.9 | 1.7 | 0 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Malaga City | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Almería II vs Malaga City?
- The Footlab model makes Almería II the favourite at 58%, against 26% for a draw and 16% for Malaga City.
- Where and when is Almería II vs Malaga City played?
- Almería II vs Malaga City is played on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Anexo Estadio de los Juegos del Mediterráneo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.