Marbelli vs Mancha Real: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 18Kick-off on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal, San Pedro de Alcántara
The Footlab AI model makes Marbelli the favourite at 61%, against 26% for a draw and 13% for Mancha Real. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,514 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marbelli vs Mancha Real?
Marbelli starts as the favourite with a 134-point Elo edge (1,788 vs 1,655).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marbelli vs Mancha Real
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marbelli
Not enough data to predict the Marbelli lineup.
Mancha Real
Not enough data to predict the Mancha Real lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 07:01 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marbelli have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Mancha Real have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alhaurino(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Malaga City(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Torre del Mar(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Huétor Vega(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Torre del Mar(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Huétor Vega(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico de Marbella(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Marbelli wins, 1 draw, 1 Mancha Real win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Mancha Real 1-1 Marbelli | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Marbelli 1-0 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Mancha Real 0-1 Marbelli | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Mancha Real 2-3 Marbelli | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Marbelli 0-1 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Mancha Real vs Marbelli on Sep 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marbelli score 1.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Mancha Real score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marbelli | 1.0 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Mancha Real | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marbelli sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (13 points from 6 matches) and Mancha Real sit 17th (2 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Marbelli | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| 17 | Mancha Real | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
A question about Marbelli vs Mancha Real?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marbelli vs Mancha Real?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marbelli the favourite at 61%, against 26% for a draw and 13% for Mancha Real.
- Where and when is Marbelli vs Mancha Real played?
- Marbelli vs Mancha Real is played on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.