Alpendorada vs Guarda: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 14Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Alpendorada, Alpendurada e Matos
The Footlab AI model makes Guarda the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Alpendorada. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guarda wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,384 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alpendorada vs Guarda?
A very open match: only 63 Elo points separate Alpendorada (1,918) and Guarda (1,855).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alpendorada vs Guarda
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alpendorada
4-3-3- 11Jucélio
- 45Pauleta
- 93Nilo Souza
- 47M. Borges
- 8B. Tavares
- 10Jony
- 16Simão Melhôr
- 2H. Meireles
- 3G. Zuzarte
- 23Pepe
- 99Ricardo Jorge Oliveira Morais
Guarda
4-3-3- DDeivison
- SSérgio Assis Capitango Fernando Santos
- 22Daniel Semedo
- 83Tiago Luís
- TT. Nang
- IIsnaba Ioncana
- HHugo Alexandre Bulak Gavino
- 21Rogério Fernandes
- GG. Benjumea
- RRafael Tavares
- 99Ricardo Jorge Oliveira Morais
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 08:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alpendorada have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Guarda have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cinfães(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Mação(home) | 3-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Machico(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sanjoanense(away) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Rebordosa(away) | 2-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sanjoanense(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 2-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Camacha(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 6, 2026 | União Lamas(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Académico do Fundão(away) | 6-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Alpendorada wins, 0 draws, 1 Guarda win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Guarda 0-1 Alpendorada | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Guarda 0-1 Alpendorada | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Alpendorada 0-1 Guarda | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
Last archived meeting: Guarda vs Alpendorada on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alpendorada score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Guarda score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpendorada | 1.4 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Guarda | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alpendorada sit 11th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (3 points from 4 matches) and Guarda sit 13th (1 point from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Alpendorada | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | Guarda | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
A question about Alpendorada vs Guarda?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alpendorada vs Guarda?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guarda the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Alpendorada.
- Where and when is Alpendorada vs Guarda played?
- Alpendorada vs Guarda is played on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Alpendorada, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.