Alpendorada vs Guarda: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 14Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Alpendorada, Alpendurada e Matos
The Footlab model makes Alpendorada the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Guarda. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alpendorada vs Guarda?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Alpendorada (1,850) and Guarda (1,768).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alpendorada have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Guarda have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Camacha(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Guarda(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Resende(home) | 3-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Salgueiros(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Beira-Mar(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Florgrade(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alpendorada(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Régua(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Leça(away) | 2-6 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Beira-Mar(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Alpendorada win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Guarda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Guarda 0-1 Alpendorada | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Guarda 0-1 Alpendorada | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Alpendorada 0-1 Guarda | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
Last archived meeting: Guarda vs Alpendorada on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alpendorada score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Guarda score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpendorada | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Guarda | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alpendorada sit 6th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (3 points from 2 matches) and Guarda sit 13th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Alpendorada | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Guarda | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alpendorada vs Guarda?
- The Footlab model makes Alpendorada the favourite at 47%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Guarda.
- Where and when is Alpendorada vs Guarda played?
- Alpendorada vs Guarda is played on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Alpendorada, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.