Ovarense vs Castro Daire: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 14Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Marques da Silva, Ovar
The Footlab AI model makes Ovarense the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Castro Daire. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,484 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 4, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ovarense vs Castro Daire?
On Elo ratings, Ovarense has 1,875 points and Castro Daire 1,785.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ovarense vs Castro Daire
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ovarense
Not enough data to predict the Ovarense lineup.
Castro Daire
4-3-3- MMarcel
- CC. Niang
- JJoão Rianço
- TTiago Almeida
- FFred Lopes
- DDiogo
- FFilipe Soares
- PPica
- TTomás César
- RRui Pinto
- TTomás Correia
Computed on November 4, 2026 at 11:01 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 12 matches in all competitions, Ovarense have 7 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Castro Daire have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Alpendorada(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Salgueiros(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Beira-Mar(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sousense(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Florgrade(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Alpendorada(away) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Salgueiros(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Portimonense(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Beira-Mar(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Ovarense win, 0 draws, 0 Castro Daire wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Castro Daire 0-2 Ovarense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
Last archived meeting: Castro Daire vs Ovarense on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ovarense score 2.1 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 12; Castro Daire score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ovarense | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5 | 6/11 | 5/11 |
| Castro Daire | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 12 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ovarense sit 1st in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (19 points from 7 matches) and Castro Daire sit 6th (10 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 19 |
| 6 | Castro Daire | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
A question about Ovarense vs Castro Daire?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ovarense vs Castro Daire?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ovarense the favourite at 52%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Castro Daire.
- Where and when is Ovarense vs Castro Daire played?
- Ovarense vs Castro Daire is played on January 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Marques da Silva, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.